☀︎ Khant Si Thu Aung, TEEP Student, Fo Guang University
☀︎ Naing Maung Kyin, TEEP Student, Fo Guang University
☀︎ Shangmao CHEN Professor, Department of Public Affairs, Fo Guang University
Abstact
Myanmar has faced profound political, social, and economic upheaval since the military coup on February 1, 2021. The military overthrew the elected government, leading to widespread violence and instability. This analysis examines the consequences of the coup, including the suppression of protests, human rights violations, and displacement due to armed conflicts between the military and ethnic armed groups. The rise of the National Unity Government (NUG) and civil resistance movements, such as the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), is explored. Myanmar’s economy has contracted significantly, with foreign investment collapsing, and inflation soaring. International sanctions, particularly from Western nations, have aimed to pressure the junta, but countries like China and Russia have provided support. Efforts by ASEAN through the Five-Point Consensus have made limited progress. The impact on Myanmar’s youth, who face disrupted education, unemployment, and forced conscription, is also highlighted. Many young people have become active in resisting the regime. The situation remains dire, with no clear resolution, and long-term stability will require significant reforms. This study highlights the ongoing challenges in Myanmar, offering insights into the complex interplay of military rule, international sanctions, and civil resistance. These findings are essential for policymakers and researchers focusing on conflict resolution and international relations.
Introduction
The military coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, marked a pivotal moment in the country’s modern history, leading to profound political, economic, and social upheaval. The Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, overthrew the democratically elected government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD), citing allegations of election fraud. Since then, the coup has resulted in the deaths of more than 765 people, with over 4,700 arrests, including those of democratically elected leaders. Reports indicate that hundreds have been shot in the streets, while others were forcibly taken from their homes during nighttime raids, often turning up dead with visible signs of abuse. Disturbingly, more than 50 children have been killed, with the youngest victim just six years old. Additionally, there are disturbing accounts of torture and sexual abuse by state forces.
The internet blackout has left most people without access to information during a critical time, further exacerbating the situation as journalists have been arrested and media organizations shuttered. Armed conflicts are escalating along Myanmar’s borders between the military and ethnic armed groups, with significant fighting involving the Kachin Independence Army(KIA) and the Karen National Liberation Army(KNLA) leading to the displacement of over 50,000 people, according to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees. Ethnic minorities, already victimized by decades of military abuse, are being disproportionately affected as the military employs airstrikes against civilian villages along the Thai and Chinese borders.
The country’s economy is in freefall, projected to shrink by 20% this year, with financial analysts warning that there is no worst-case scenario that can be ruled out regarding the economic costs of the coup. Compounding this dire situation is the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, which the coup threatens to exacerbate, undermining governmental efforts to manage the pandemic. The United Nations World Food Program has recently warned that up to 3.4 million people in Myanmar could face hunger this year, while nearly half of the nation’s 54 million population is at risk of sliding into poverty due to the combined impacts of military rule and the pandemic.
In the wake of the coup, a civil disobedience movement (CDM) has emerged, uniting millions across the country in resistance against the military regime. The situation remains complex and volatile as Myanmar grapples with the aftermath of the coup, marked by widespread violence, oppression, and a humanitarian crisis.This study aims to provide an in-depth analysis of Myanmar’s situation from 2021 to the present, focusing on the political, economic, and social consequences of the military coup. It will explore the rise of the NUG, the ongoing resistance, and the military’s repressive actions while also examining the international response and its impact on Myanmar’s future. Through this analysis, the study seeks to shed light on the broader implications of Myanmar’s current crisis and the challenges to achieving lasting stability and peace.
The Latest Situation in Myanmar (2021–2024)
Political Instability and Civil Conflict
The 2021 military coup plunged Myanmar into a period of profound political instability, exacerbating long-standing tensions between the military (Tatmadaw) and civilian resistance movements. The overthrow of the National League for Democracy (NLD) government, followed by the brutal suppression of peaceful protests, triggered widespread civil unrest across the country. By late October 2023, Myanmar faced its strongest challenge to the junta’s rule since the coup, when a coalition of three ethnic armed groups in Shan State launched a coordinated offensive. This insurgency targeted military and police outposts using drones to bomb key locations in eastern Kayah State, western Rakhine State, and northern Shan State (Hein, 2022). These regions, which border Thailand, India, and China, have seen intensified fighting, displacing over two million civilians according to the United Nations.
This surge in armed resistance has created further instability. The situation on the borders, especially in areas like Shan State and Rakhine State, remains dire as ethnic armed groups like the Kachin Independence Army and Karen National Liberation Army continue to challenge the military’s authority. Meanwhile, ethnic minorities, including the Rohingya, remain particularly vulnerable. The Rohingya[1], a Muslim minority, have faced decades of persecution, and the renewed conflict has only exacerbated their plight. Widespread military abuses, including war crimes and human rights violations, have drawn international condemnation, yet the conflict shows no signs of abating.
Economic Decline Post-Coup
Myanmar’s economy has been fundamentally damaged since the military coup in 2021, pushing nearly half of the population below the poverty line. Although there was meager growth of 2 to 3 percent in 2023, this does little to recover from the double-digit contraction[2] inflicted by the junta. The country continues to face weak consumer demand, low employment, and high prices, all contributing to a prolonged economic crisis. Businesses struggle with perpetual shortages due to foreign currency constraints, which have depressed exports and driven inflation. For instance, gas exports have declined because of disruptions in border areas, while international sanctions and asset freezes, such as the blacklisting of Myanmar by the Financial Action Task Force in October 2022, have further isolated the country from the international financial system.
Sanctions have particularly impacted state-owned banks, with the United States designation of two such banks in mid-2023, causing financial institutions like Singapore’s United Overseas Bank Limited to cease relationships with Myanmar banks by August 2023. The regime’s currency controls, forcing importers and exporters to transact at unfavorable official exchange rates, have worsened the economic situation, limiting access to foreign currency for ordinary citizens. This has had wide-ranging effects, including a near-total halt of rice exports to China and restrictions on imports of vital agricultural products, raising concerns about food production and shortages.
Myanmar’s currency, the kyat, has devalued drastically from a pre-coup rate of K1300 to US$1 to K3900 by September 2023, and inflation remains uncontrolled despite efforts like the issuance of high-denomination banknotes. Although the garment manufacturing industry has shown some resilience, with exports exceeding pre-coup levels, this growth is overshadowed by poor working conditions, labor rights violations, and reduced employment. The industry’s growth appears driven by low labor costs rather than productivity improvements, with workers facing insecure employment and exploitative conditions.(Nyein, 2024)
The broader economic picture remains bleak. Public spending on health and education has decreased, and most of the population suffers from humanitarian needs. Cyclone Mocha[3], which hit in May 2023, further underscored Myanmar’s vulnerability to environmental disasters, especially in conflict zones where delivering aid is difficult. Economic forecasts for the country have become increasingly irrelevant in the face of escalating conflict, and the continued survival of the regime government remains uncertain. The country’s economic hardships are unlikely to ease until significant political changes take place.
Impact on Foreign Investment
The coup also had a catastrophic impact on foreign investment, once a key driver of Myanmar’s economic growth. In the years leading up to the military takeover, Myanmar had been a popular destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), attracting $3.8 billion in 2020. However, by 2024, this figure had collapsed, with FDI in the first seven months of the year reaching a mere $150 million—a dramatic drop that reflected investor concerns over the country’s political and economic instability.
Multinational companies from countries like Singapore, South Korea, and Japan, which had previously invested heavily in Myanmar’s industrial and service sectors, halted their operations and withdrew from the market. The unstable political environment, coupled with a failing banking system and increasing civil unrest, made Myanmar an unattractive destination for foreign capital. Many companies relocated their operations to more politically stable neighboring countries like Thailand and Vietnam. The collapse of foreign investment further crippled Myanmar’s already struggling economy, depriving key sectors of much-needed capital and expertise, thereby worsening unemployment and poverty.
Currency Crisis and Banking Difficulties
The economic chaos unleashed by the coup also triggered a severe currency crisis. Myanmar’s currency, the kyat, suffered a massive devaluation as confidence in the military regime’s ability to manage the economy evaporated. The official exchange rate was set at 2,100 kyats per US dollar, but in black market exchanges, the rate skyrocketed to over 6,000 kyats per dollar.[4] This discrepancy highlighted the growing disconnect between the government’s monetary policies and the reality of the market, leading to hyperinflation and a sharp rise in the cost of basic goods and services.
The currency crisis further destabilized Myanmar’s already fragile banking system. As fears of economic collapse mounted, depositors rushed to withdraw their savings, leading to a liquidity crisis in the country’s banks. The lack of access to foreign exchange crippled businesses reliant on imported goods and services, exacerbating supply chain issues and driving inflation even higher. Despite attempts by the junta to control the banking system and stabilize the currency, these efforts largely failed, leaving the economy in disarray. Businesses, both domestic and foreign, faced immense challenges as the financial crisis deepened, pushing Myanmar further into isolation from the global economy.
Myanmar’s political and economic landscape from 2021 to 2024 has been marked by escalating conflict, economic collapse, and severe financial instability.[5] The combined effects of the coup, civil conflict, the exodus of foreign investment, and the currency crisis have left the country in a state of prolonged crisis, with no clear resolution in sight.
Military Abuses, Political Repression, and the Rise of Scam Operations
Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has seen escalating military abuses and political repression, alongside the alarming rise of scam operations. The Tatmadaw’s authoritarian rule has led to widespread human rights violations, while the political and economic instability created fertile ground for illegal activities, including sophisticated scam operations. This section explores both the junta’s oppressive tactics and the military’s complicity in the growing illicit economy.
Human Rights Violations, Martial Law, and Conscription Law
Myanmar has seen widespread human rights violations under the military regime, targeting civilians, especially youth, protesters, and ethnic minorities. The military has employed brutal tactics such as arbitrary arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings to suppress dissent. Youth, who have led the resistance, face severe repression, including raids, forced disappearances, and detention in inhumane conditions. Ethnic minorities like the Rohingya, Kachin, and Karen have been disproportionately affected, as the military continues violent campaigns in their territories, displacing thousands and committing acts of ethnic persecution.
In response to ongoing resistance, the military imposed martial law in several regions, further curbing civil liberties. Under martial law, the junta enforces harsh measures, including warrantless arrests, curfews, and forced conscription, compelling young people to serve in the military for at least two years. The regime also controls communication, imposing internet blackouts and restricting access to information, while using economic sanctions and asset seizures to tighten its grip on power. These repressive actions have deepened the humanitarian crisis, with much of the population facing severe economic hardship and limited access to basic services.
The junta has activated a national conscription law[6], summoning all young men and women to serve in the armed forces for at least two years. This law, first promulgated 65 years ago but never enforced by previous governments, reflects the military’s dire recruitment crisis and its struggle to combat growing military offensives from anti-regime ethnic armed groups and their allied resistance forces.
The junta’s spokesperson has stated that the law aims to bolster military ranks in light of significant casualties and desertions, as well as a lack of public support for the regime (Wong, 2023). The enforcement of compulsory conscription is accompanied by measures such as recalling veterans and forcibly recruiting individuals for labor or militia groups. This move highlights the junta’s desperation as it seeks to maintain control amid escalating resistance.
Under the new conscription law, all men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 are required to serve, with penalties for evasion ranging from three to five years in prison. The law’s implementation is expected to exacerbate the existing brain drain, as many young people are likely to flee Myanmar in search of safety and better opportunities. Furthermore, the law could fuel opposition to the regime, as it targets a demographic that is increasingly resistant to military rule. There are concerns that the military will resort to rounding up civilians to fill the ranks, further escalating tensions and resistance.
In addition to conscription, the junta has implemented harsh measures, including arbitrary arrests during nighttime inspections, where soldiers extort money from families under the guise of searching for unregistered guests. Such practices have become routine, with soldiers leveraging the law as a means to generate income through corruption and extortion.
The junta’s violent crackdown on dissent has resulted in thousands of arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings, creating a climate of pervasive fear. Reports of human rights violations are widespread, with the military targeting ethnic minority groups and suppressing any form of opposition. This situation underscores the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, where the military regime continues to employ brutal tactics to maintain its grip on power, further deepening the humanitarian crisis facing the country.
Political Repression and Crackdown on Opposition
The military’s crackdown on political opposition has been one of its most effective tools in consolidating power. Since the coup, more than 24,000 people, including political leaders, activists, journalists, and civilians, have been arrested. Many of those detained have been tortured or held in inhumane conditions, with thousands still imprisoned without trial.
Special courts, established within prisons, have been used to expedite politically motivated cases, operating without due process or legal representation for the accused. Military tribunals have handed down harsh sentences, including the death penalty, to those found guilty of opposing the regime. The junta has systematically targeted the National League for Democracy, dissolving the party and sentencing its leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, to lengthy prison terms on fabricated charges.
By 2023, the political space in Myanmar had effectively been crushed. Social media posts critical of the junta became grounds for arrest, and political repression extended to all forms of dissent. This strategy has allowed the Tatmadaw to tighten its grip on power, using fear and intimidation to silence opposition.
The Rise of Scam Operations in the Post-Coup Chaos
As Myanmar’s political and economic situation worsened, the country saw a sharp increase in scam operations, particularly in regions controlled by criminal syndicates and ethnic armed groups. These scams often involve fraudulent online schemes, including investment fraud, online dating scams, and digital currency fraud, targeting victims both within and outside Myanmar. Organized crime groups, taking advantage of the collapse of law and order, have set up scam hubs in border regions such as Myawaddy[7], exploiting the lack of government oversight.
The Myanmar military, China, and scam centers share a complex and interconnected relationship shaped by political, economic, and security interests. Scam centers, which have proliferated along the China-Myanmar border, primarily involve human trafficking and forced labor in fraudulent online operations targeting Chinese citizens. These centers are controlled by Chinese-led crime networks, often in collaboration with local militias and armed groups such as the United Wa State Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army, and Kokang authorities.
Since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, these scam centers have expanded significantly, in part due to the military’s tacit approval. The junta, needing to maintain control and alliances with militias in border regions, has often overlooked the operations of these centers, as they provide a vital source of revenue for armed groups allied with the military. This has resulted in a mutually beneficial arrangement: the military benefits from militia cooperation, while militias profit from scam operations.
China, deeply concerned about the rising number of its citizens being trafficked into Myanmar to work in scam centers, has pressured the Myanmar junta to dismantle these operations. However, the military’s response has been slow and limited, largely due to their dependence on militia support. China’s frustration with the military’s lack of decisive action led to its tacit approval of “Operation 2023,” a resistance movement aimed at eradicating scam centers.
This situation has left the Myanmar military in a difficult position: cracking down on scam centers risks losing crucial militia alliances, while inaction continues to strain relations with China. For China, the persistence of scam centers presents a significant threat to its citizens and regional stability, prompting continued diplomatic and economic pressure on the Myanmar military
Many of these operations are run by Chinese nationals or are supported by the Tatmadaw itself, with reports suggesting that elements within the military are complicit in the scams. In exchange for financial kickbacks, the military provides protection and logistical support to scam operators, allowing them to operate with impunity. These operations, disguised as legitimate businesses, lure unsuspecting employees with false promises of high-paying jobs, only to coerce them into illegal activities under threat of violence or imprisonment.
The rise of scam operations has further damaged Myanmar’s international reputation and created new challenges for law enforcement in neighboring countries, particularly Thailand and China, where victims of these scams are concentrated. The military’s involvement in these activities, combined with its role in protecting criminal networks, has made it difficult for regional authorities to crack down on the illegal economy.The military’s abuses, both in terms of human rights violations and its role in enabling scam operations, have deepened Myanmar’s crisis. The junta’s repression of political dissent, combined with its complicity in criminal activities, highlights the complexity of the challenges facing the country, as it remains trapped in a cycle of violence, corruption, and lawlessness. Plus, this situation has left the Myanmar military in a difficult position: cracking down on scam centers risks losing crucial militia alliances, while inaction continues to strain relations with China. For China, the persistence of scam centers presents a significant threat to its citizens and regional stability, prompting continued diplomatic and economic pressure on the Myanmar military.
ASEAN’s Role and International Responses to the Myanmar Crisis
Since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, both ASEAN and the international community have undertaken various efforts to address the ongoing political instability, human rights abuses, and economic collapse in the country. ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus and international sanctions have been key mechanisms for diplomatic engagement, but their effectiveness has been limited by various factors, including the military regime’s intransigence and geopolitical complexities. This section explores ASEAN’s efforts, the challenges it faces, and the broader international response.
ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus and Mediation Efforts
In response to the crisis, ASEAN convened an emergency summit in April 2021, which resulted in the adoption of the Five-Point Consensus. The consensus outlined five key steps: 1) an immediate cessation of violence, 2) inclusive dialogue among all parties, 3) appointment of a special ASEAN envoy, 4) provision of humanitarian assistance, and 5) a visit by the ASEAN envoy to meet with all stakeholders in Myanmar.
While this diplomatic framework initially provided a glimmer of hope, the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus has been fraught with difficulties. The junta, despite agreeing to the plan, has largely ignored its provisions. Violence has escalated, and the regime continues to suppress opposition, using lethal force against protesters and airstrikes against ethnic armed groups. The military’s refusal to engage in genuine dialogue with opposition groups, particularly the National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), has further stalled progress.
ASEAN’s principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states has limited its ability to enforce the consensus. Although a special envoy was appointed to facilitate dialogue, the junta has frequently delayed access and refused meaningful cooperation (Suzuki, 2019). Despite efforts, including quiet diplomacy led by Indonesia during its 2023 chairmanship, ASEAN’s mediation has yielded few concrete results. The organization’s inability to apply real pressure on the junta has drawn criticism, particularly from human rights groups, who argue that ASEAN’s leniency has enabled the military to continue its oppressive rule with impunity (Sun, 2014).
International Sanctions and Diplomatic Pressure
In parallel with ASEAN’s diplomatic initiatives, the international community—especially Western nations—has imposed targeted sanctions on Myanmar’s military regime. The United States, European Union, and other allies have frozen the assets of key military leaders, implemented travel bans, and restricted exports of goods that could support the junta’s operations. These sanctions primarily focus on sectors like natural resources, mining, and energy, which are vital revenue streams for the military.
While these economic sanctions were designed to weaken the regime, their impact has been tempered by Myanmar’s ability to find alternative financial and logistical support from China and Russia. Both countries have significant geopolitical and economic interests in Myanmar, and they have provided the regime with crucial lifelines, such as arms sales and economic cooperation. China, through its Belt and Road Initiative, has continued to support Myanmar, viewing it as a strategic partner in the region. Russia has also bolstered its military relationship with the junta, supplying advanced weapons and technology, which has emboldened the military to resist Western pressure.
China has played a crucial yet complex role in Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, with diplomatic pressure growing as instability threatens Beijing’s interests. In late 2023, China’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, visited Myanmar and met with the leader of its military government, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing.[8] Wang’s visit came as Myanmar’s military suffered unprecedented battlefield defeats at the hands of ethnic militias, especially along the northeast border with China. These setbacks, coupled with Min Aung Hlaing’s accusations that foreign countries—widely interpreted to mean China—were supplying arms and technology to the militias, underscored rising tensions.
During the visit, Wang reiterated China’s opposition to chaos and war in Myanmar, expressing that China rejects external interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs. He further emphasized the need for Myanmar to protect Chinese personnel and projects. While maintaining cooperation with the military, Wang made it clear that China opposes ethnic militia attacks in northern Shan State and is invested in promoting stability along the border.
Despite these statements, China’s relationship with Myanmar’s military is strained. Analysts believe that Beijing harbors significant distrust toward Min Aung Hlaing, viewing him as incompetent and unfriendly toward Chinese interests. The military’s inability to contain the resistance threatens the stability China requires to safeguard its economic and strategic investments in Myanmar, including its mines, oil, gas pipelines, and other infrastructure projects. As Myanmar’s biggest trading partner and one of its main arms suppliers, China has maintained working relations with the junta, yet growing instability raises doubts about the future of these ties.(Paing, 2024).
Instead of seeking the international community’s support in resolving Myanmar’s crises, China has favored bilateral consultations. In November 2017, during a trip to Bangladesh and Myanmar, Wang Yi announced a ‘three-phase plan’ aimed at achieving a ‘final and fundamental solution’ to the Rohingya crisis. The first phase of the plan called for a ceasefire in Rakhine State to restore peace, while the second phase focused on repatriating Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh to Myanmar. The third phase emphasized addressing the root causes of the conflict through development, with China advocating for investments in Rakhine State as a means of boosting development and alleviating poverty. This approach reflected China’s preference for economic solutions as a way to stabilize the region, without involving broader international intervention.
Beijing’s involvement extends beyond diplomatic gestures; China has brokered ceasefires between the military and ethnic militias, including a January 2023 ceasefire with the powerful Three Brotherhood Alliance[9]. However, hostilities resumed by mid-2023, further complicating China’s efforts to maintain stability. Given the military’s declining power, analysts believe that China will adjust its policies as needed, prioritizing its self-interest in safeguarding investments rather than supporting the junta unconditionally.
These geopolitical dynamics have complicated efforts at the United Nations, where resolutions aimed at condemning the junta and imposing stricter sanctions have been blocked by China and Russia, both of whom wield veto power in the UN Security Council. This has left the international community with limited options for exerting meaningful diplomatic pressure on Myanmar’s military leadership.
Challenges and Limitations of International Efforts
Both ASEAN and international actors face significant challenges in resolving the Myanmar crisis. ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus has been hampered by its non-interference policy, a lack of enforcement mechanisms, and the junta’s refusal to cooperate. The absence of a unified regional stance, particularly among ASEAN member states, has further weakened the bloc’s ability to mediate the conflict effectively.[10] Despite ASEAN’s diplomatic efforts, the continuation of violence and the junta’s consolidation of power highlight the limits of the consensus.
Similarly, international sanctions, while damaging Myanmar’s economy, have had limited success in altering the regime’s behavior. The military’s access to alternative resources through alliances with China and Russia has allowed it to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions (Hunt, 2022). Additionally, sanctions have inadvertently worsened the economic situation for the civilian population, contributing to hyperinflation, unemployment, and widespread poverty. This has raised concerns about the humanitarian impact of sanctions, as the most vulnerable segments of society bear the brunt of the economic downturn.
The international community’s inability to exert sufficient diplomatic pressure, coupled with ASEAN’s limited capacity to enforce its Five-Point Consensus, underscores the complexity of the Myanmar crisis. Geopolitical considerations, particularly the involvement of China and Russia, have shielded the junta from full international isolation, prolonging the conflict and leaving Myanmar’s future uncertain.
The Future of Myanmar’s Youth and the Nation’s Prospects
Myanmar’s military coup in 2021 has had devastating consequences for the country’s youth and future generations. The disruption of education, collapse of job markets, and escalating violence have left Myanmar’s young population facing an uncertain future. Simultaneously, the nation as a whole remains trapped in a cycle of political instability, economic decline, and a worsening humanitarian crisis.
The Future of the Youth
One of the most striking challenges faced by young activists is the lack of security. Since the coup, the military has used arbitrary arrests and repressive laws to target youths, especially those perceived to be leading the anti-coup protests. Evidence shows that the junta has reintroduced the overnight guest registration law[11], giving them the power to search homes without warrants. Young people are often arrested for simply sharing anti-regime content on social media, and those detained face severe consequences, including torture, sexual abuse, or even extrajudicial killings. For many, fleeing their homes and seeking refuge in ethnic armed organizations (EAO) territories is the only way to continue resisting the regime. As one young activist stated, “I am going to stay here as long as the situation allows. I will flee to the forest [EAO area] when it is impossible to continue staying here”. These testimonies provide clear evidence of the dangers youth face as they resist the military’s brutal crackdown (Thant, 2021).
Additionally, the youth have been economically crippled by the coup. The lack of resources and financial support is a pressing issue for young activists. Many of them are students or participants in the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), and since the coup, they have lost their jobs or are unable to work. Organizing protests and strikes is costly, with activists needing funds for transportation, materials, and basic living expenses. The military has actively sought to cut off their financial support by freezing the bank accounts[12] of those suspected of supporting the resistance and arresting individuals linked to fundraising for anti-coup activities.(Thant, 2021) A protester explained the financial strain, stating, “It is costly organizing protests as there are particular items we need, as well as printing, transportation fees, basic living costs, and we cannot work or live a normal life”. This lack of financial security has made it increasingly difficult for young people to continue their resistance efforts.
Moreover, the limited influence of youth in key political platforms presents another significant challenge. Despite leading the protests on the ground, youth are underrepresented in key resistance bodies like the National Unity Government (NUG) and the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), with less than 10 percent of members under the age of 35. Youth from marginalized communities, such as ethnic minorities and the LGBTQ+ population, face additional barriers to having their voices heard. Activists fear that their concerns are being overlooked in the larger political discourse, with one youth activist expressing concern that the older political generation may negotiate with the military, leaving the younger generation’s demands unaddressed(Thant, 2021). This exclusion provides clear evidence of the systemic challenges faced by youth as they fight not only for the end of military rule but also for a future that reflects their ideals.
One of the key aspirations among the youth is the abolishment of the 2008 Constitution[13], which they see as a major obstacle to genuine democracy in Myanmar. This constitution, drafted under military influence, grants significant power to the military even in a civilian government, and many youth activists are advocating for its removal. The young generation’s vision for a federal democracy reflects their desire for self-determination and autonomy, especially among ethnic minorities who have been historically marginalized by the central government. Their calls for a federal state that ensures equality across ethnic lines are seen as critical for long-term peace and stability in Myanmar.
However, achieving these goals is far from straightforward. The military’s entrenched power, deep-rooted ethnic divisions, and the collapse of Myanmar’s economy present enormous obstacles. Economic recovery will be a key concern for the country’s future. The youth understand that rebuilding Myanmar’s economy will require significant reforms and investment, particularly in sectors that have been devastated by military mismanagement and sanctions. Many young people also recognize the importance of international support, both in terms of humanitarian aid and sanctions that pressure the military while supporting democratic forces.
Another significant challenge for the youth is the need for trauma healing and reconciliation. Many young people have directly experienced or witnessed the military’s brutality, and the psychological scars run deep. For Myanmar to rebuild, youth leaders believe that addressing this collective trauma and fostering social harmony will be critical. The youth see themselves as key players in this process of reconciliation, especially in bridging divides between different ethnic groups and those who supported or opposed the military regime.
The evidence points to a grim reality for Myanmar’s youth. The coup has disrupted their education, careers, and safety, and they now face significant security threats, financial hardships, and political exclusion. Despite these overwhelming obstacles, young activists remain at the forefront of the resistance, providing a powerful testament to their resilience and determination to fight for a better future for their country.
Impact on Education and Employment for Myanmar’s Youth
The coup severely disrupted Myanmar’s education system, with schools and universities shutting down due to protests, strikes, and armed conflict. The junta’s brutal crackdown on teachers and students involved in anti-military demonstrations further destabilized the sector. Many educators were arrested, while students were targeted and imprisoned for participating in protests. This led to the near-total collapse of formal education, leaving millions of young people without access to learning and development opportunities.
Even for those able to complete their education, the job market has deteriorated. The post-coup economic collapse has led to the shutdown of foreign companies, the closure of local businesses, and the disruption of key industries, such as manufacturing and agriculture. Youth unemployment has soared as a result, with limited prospects for young people to secure meaningful employment. Many face financial instability, and frustration is growing among the younger generation, who see little hope for a better future.
Migration and the Refugee Crisis
The bleak economic and political outlook has driven many young people to flee Myanmar in search of safety and opportunities elsewhere. Migration to neighboring countries like Thailand and India has surged since the coup, with young refugees seeking asylum or work abroad. However, the mass exodus has led to a regional humanitarian crisis, as neighboring countries struggle to cope with the influx of refugees. The dangers of illegal migration routes have also exposed many to exploitation by human traffickers or poor living conditions in refugee camps.This brain drain of young, educated, and skilled individuals has serious long-term implications for Myanmar’s future. The country is losing its most capable and motivated citizens, further weakening its ability to recover from the ongoing conflict. The flight of young people exacerbates the country’s economic woes, reducing the human capital needed to rebuild industries and restore stability.
Conclusion: Myanmar’s Uncertain Path Forward and Future Prospect of Myanmar
The impact of the military coup on Myanmar’s youth and the country’s broader future is profound. The combination of educational disruption, unemployment, and mass migration has created a generation that is both disillusioned and displaced. Without meaningful political and economic reforms, Myanmar risks descending further into chaos, with long-lasting repercussions for its people, particularly the younger generation.
While there are forces working toward a democratic and peaceful future, including the NUG and various resistance movements, the military’s entrenched power and the ongoing violence suggest that Myanmar’s path to recovery will be long and fraught with difficulties. The future of Myanmar, both for its youth and the nation as a whole, remains precarious, as the country continues to grapple with the consequences of military rule and prolonged conflict.
A central theme that emerges from the youth is their desire for democracy, justice, and equality. The coup has pushed many young people to envision a future that not only restores democracy but also addresses deeper structural issues within Myanmar. The youth activists interviewed express a strong commitment to overturning military rule and building a society that guarantees fundamental rights for all. For many, the fight is not just about returning to the status quo before the coup, but about creating a new Myanmar that is inclusive of ethnic minorities, women, and marginalized groups, such as the LGBTQ+ community.
While the immediate future remains uncertain, Myanmar’s youth are determined to push forward with their vision of a democratic, inclusive, and just society. They are aware that this will be a long and difficult journey, requiring not only the removal of military rule but also addressing deeply entrenched issues of inequality, corruption, and authoritarianism. Many of the youth interviewed expressed their willingness to continue the struggle for as long as it takes, signaling their long-term commitment to reshaping Myanmar’s future.
In summary, the future prospects for Myanmar, according to the youth, are centered on the principles of federalism, democracy, and social justice. While the road ahead is filled with challenges, their determination to continue resisting military rule and building a more equitable society offers hope for a brighter future. However, achieving these goals will require not only sustained activism but also significant structural reforms and international support to bring about meaningful change.
[1] The Rohingya, one of Myanmar’s ethnic groups, are widely regarded as the most oppressed due to religious differences and are often mistakenly considered illegal migrants from the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.
[2] Myanmar’s economy has suffered a double-digit contraction since the military coup, leaving almost half the population below the poverty line.
[3] Cyclone Mocha, which hit in May 2023, highlighted Myanmar’s vulnerability to natural disasters in the midst of its ongoing conflict.
[4] World Bank. Myanmar Economic Monitor: Inflation, Economic Decline, and Foreign Investment. Retrieved from World Bank
[5] Radio Free Asia. (2024). Foreign investment in Myanmar plummets as the junta struggles with civil war and economic crisis.
[6] The enforcement of the national conscription law, which mandates military service for young men and women, has deepened the humanitarian crisis.
[7] Myawaddy, a border region between Thailand and Myanmar, has become notorious for being a hub of scam operations.
[8] Foreign investment in Myanmar plummets as junta struggles with civil war and economic crisis.” Radio Free Asia, 2024
[9] The Three Brother Alliance, a coalition of ethnic armed groups, has posed a significant challenge to the military in Rakhine State.
[10] ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights. “ASEAN’s ‘review and decision’ on Five Point Consensus falls short of what is needed to resolve the Myanmar crisis, Southeast Asian MPs say.” 2023.
[11] The reintroduction of the overnight guest registration law requires new people from another city to register with the respective county office. Failure to do so could result in arrest as an illegally transferred citizen.
[12] The freezing of bank accounts, particularly KBZ Bank, suspected of supporting the People Defense Army (PDF), has financially crippled many resistance efforts.
[13] The 2008 Constitution, also known as the ‘Green Book’, grants substantial powers to the military, which has impeded the establishment of full democracy.
